2.24.2011

FT Tilt: Look to healthy cities for Colombia's growth

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[VftG] Look to healthy cities for Colombia’s growth

by Rodrigo Botero, former Finance Minister for Colombia

We heard last week that my successor as Finance Minister of Colombia, Juan Carlos Echeverry, expects ratings firms to upgrade Colombia to investment grade in the course of 2011 – which follows previous upgrades from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s in 2010.

That was followed by news about the prospect of vast infrastructure investments from China in a trans-coastal rail link in northwest Colombia, and comments on Colombia’s “strategic position” for regional trade by China’s ambassador in Bogota. And on-again, off-again speculation about a free trade deal between Colombia and the USA has been renewed by news that the deal has support from President Obama and Congress.

Colombia is at a promising and vital point in its history and these stories speak to the optimism that currently surrounds debate about the prospects for Colombia’s economy. Commentators point to the President’s business-friendly credentials and the country’s strong institutional investment guarantees – Colombia being party to the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, the Latin American Investment Guarantee Company and the New York Convention on Investment Disputes.

But investors may have overlooked – if they have thought about it at all – the fact that the success of urbanized economies depends on workers who are fit to work and children who are fit to learn, and thus on healthy urban environments and access to at least minimal urban healthcare.

Like most emerging markets in Latin America, Colombia is highly urbanized. Three quarters of its population lives in cities, although fewer are concentrated in its largest city (Bogota) than in countries like Chile where overwhelming demographic and economic concentration means most of the nation’s ‘urban eggs’ are in a single basket.

Unlike some other emerging markets in the region, successive national and local governments in Colombia have recognized the links between economic health and urban health and have worked hard to create healthy cities. Much has happened since my friend and compatriot, Enrique Peñalosa, Mayor of Bogota from 1998 to 2001 revolutionised the city’s transportation system, built dedicated (and healthy) cycleways, created health-promoting green spaces, integrated public health planning and city planning and developed urban health facilities. Better than most, he understood that a highly urbanized national economy needs healthy cities.

Enrique Peñalosa and I recently participated in a symposium on urbanization, health and human security organized by The Emerging Markets Symposium at Green Templeton College, Oxford. There was strong consensus that urban health is a critical parameter of economic growth and human welfare in emerging market cities; that if these countries are to achieve their goals their cities must play central roles; and that to play those roles national and local governments must attempt nothing less than the reinvention of urban public health.

The Oxford symposium concluded that the concentration of people and economic activity in emerging market cities is both a source of problems and a key to solutions. These cities face massive challenges in creating and maintaining healthful environments and delivering even minimal healthcare. But they derive huge advantages from the economies of scale and operation that are part and parcel of spatial concentration.

They should consider adapting successful innovations that have been pioneered in other cities and participate in sharing explicit and tacit knowledge about urban health and healthcare. They should explore options for home-grown rather than imported solutions. They should consider reforms to health and healthcare education and training, placing more emphasis on urban health and the social determinants of health.

And they should consider what might be learned about health and healthcare planning and management from the experience of cities like Bogota where city governments – for better or worse – control outcomes and the buck stops at City Hall.

Rodrigo Botero is a former Finance Minister of Colombia. He has also served the Colombian government as a special advisor to the president on economic affairs and as economic counselor at the Colombian Embassy in Washington D.C. He was founder and first excutive director of Fedesarrollo, a non-governmental policy research center located in Bogota of which he is now a trustee emeritus and member of the international advisory board.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in “View from the Ground” do not necessarily reflect those of the FT Tilt editorial team. FT Tilt may edit the columns for clarity; any errors of fact or omission are the author’s own.


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11.03.2010

PIMCO | Mohamed El-Erian - We've Voted. What's Next For the Economy?

We've Voted. What's Next For the Economy?
  • With the two chambers of Congress split between Democrats and Republicans, the conventional wisdom likely to be repeated over the next few weeks is that political gridlock is good for the economy. While often true, that is not the case today.
  • Democrats and Republicans must meet in the middle to implement policies to deal with debt overhangs and structural rigidities.
  • The economy needs political courage that transcends expediency in favor of long-term solutions on issues including housing reform, medium-term budget rules, pro-growth tax reforms, investments in physical and technological infrastructure, job retraining, greater support for education and scientific research, and better nets to protect the most vulnerable segments of society.

Mohamed El-Erian, Co-CIO/CEO of PIMCO and the voice on the street that I trust utmost in times of uncertainty, casts a veil of uncertainty over the seemingly decisive electoral mandate claimed by the GOP in yesterday's triumph at the polls. The insurgent nature of the GOP movement, spearheaded by the Tea Baggers (Party), does not inspire hope in the prospects of overcoming the policy gridlock in DC that must be addressed before any fundamental changes can be made to the country's rapidly deteriorating long-term fiscal health with an aging population and public pension liabilities light-years beyond the tipping point of permanent insolvency.

Due to the "great age" of leverage, debt and credit entitlement, and the related surge in structural unemployment, the private sector is not in a position to control its own destiny. Emerging markets are rapidly eroding traditional economic and political competitive advantages enjoyed by the US. It is hard to disagree with El-Erian in his conclusion - the extreme nature of today's political discourse is ill-suited to tackling the pressing issues of our time.

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

Mid-term elections, QE and the markets: Tea and QE | The Economist

But there is also a nice irony at work. The tea party is opposed to massive government spending and bailouts. But QE is a way for the central bank to finance that government spending and to pump money into the banking sector. So on the day that the tea partiers may be celebrating, an unelected central bank will be carrying out a programme, probably totalling several hundred billion dollars, that will cut against everything the partiers stand for.

Buttonwood accurately foresaw the overwhelming victory of the Tea Baggers and we are now mere hours from the likely Federal Reserve announcement of QE2 and the resumption of the printing press. The irony observed in the above excerpt - that the Fed is poised to undermine everything the Tea Baggers fundamentally stand on through its independent monetary authority - is unlikely to be fully appreciated by the media as the day progresses. It will be interesting to see the response of the freshly invigorated GOP activists in the coming weeks leading up to their inauguration early next year. I suspect the radical tone will be subdued by political realities and market uncertainty, not to mention the radical shift in mindset that accompanies a transition from insurgent to incumbent.

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

9.21.2010

And Then There Was One: Tiny Tim All Alone...

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks alon...Image via Wikipedia
Bloomberg just broke the news that Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, is expected to leave the White House following the November elections. This leaves Timothy Geithner as the sole remaining member of the original foursome guiding the Administration's economic policy.

Poor Timothy. Its never fun being the last person standing when the music stops, but something tells me that Mr Geithner will do his boy scout best to continue throwing bucket after bucket overboard as the Titanic (US Government) continues is
slow decent permanently underwater.

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Global Macro News 9.20.2010

Asia-Pacific
Japan intervenes to devalue the Yen (FT.com)
In Depth Report: Japanese Intervention (FT.com)
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook Sept 20-24 (Forex Crunch)
China: What do the "good" trade numbers tell us? (China Financial Markets)
Are There More Middle-Class Households in India or in China? (Next Big Future)


EU
Poland Ready To Take "Brutal" Steps on Foreign Currency Loans (Bloomberg)
Hungarian Forint Touches Record Low (ForexBlog)
Hungary faces downgrade of debt to junk status (Bloomberg)


US
Federal Reserve Resumes Open Market Operations (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
End of Recession / No End of Private Sector Deleveraging (EconompicData)
The Only Part That Mattered In  Obama's Telethon (Market Ticker)
Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How (Safe Haven)
El-Erian on the interesting week ahead (FT Alphaville)
Entitlements, Taxes, Inequality and Three-Way Class Warfare (Of Two Minds)

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